When I was at university I used to have these arguments with a school friend which I termed Maybe one day arguments. They would drive me nuts.

They were normally about science, and I whilst I would try explain why something is not possible, using solid science to back up my argument. He would counter with the argument "Well maybe one day we will find new science/find a new power source/find someway". I still fail to see how people can easily accept this mythical power source or new scientific discover one day in the future, but cannot accept that we do have some really good science now that proves it's not possible.

Then I realised it was like religion. I could never convince him, because you can't prove a belief wrong. Like you can't prove god doesn't exist. So I could never prove his "one day arguments" wrong, no matter what I said.

I've put some of the arguments below, and my counters to them. There were many others, but this was the crux of the argument. The rest just descended into looping through the same things. Basically that humans were arrogant to think we knew anything and one day we might know something else. Although why one would believe what me might know one day if one wasn't willing to believe what we know to day I don't know.

Argument
We don't know everything.
My counter
But we do know somethings. We've got a pretty damn good idea about other things. Sure there are things we do not know, but this does not dismiss that which we don't know.
Argument
They said man could never fly, and we fly now.
My counter
Yes, but they never could prove man could never fly. It just seemed improbable because we fall a lot. There are a lot of things we can actually prove now. Including why we can fly
Argument
The keep finding new science that replaces old science. Maybe one day we'll find a new science that allows us to do X
My counter
Actually that's not strictly true. We keep finding new science that refines previous science, not replaces it. it's all about resolution. Newton define the laws of motion. This works for bodies of a particular size (bigger than atoms). Einstein refined this by with Special Relativity (works with light) and again 10 years layer even more with General Relativity (Works with Gravity). Quantum Mechanics refined this further (works with atoms and small things), and String Theory is refined this further (explains how atoms work). Whilst M-Theory is even trying to explain this further and perhaps offer up a theory of everything. None of these so called new sciences actually replace the old science. They just explain what happens in more and more detail. Newton wasn't wrong. He just didn't cover those instances involving light or atoms. It's that the frame of reference is pretty specific for physics sometimes, not that the science is wrong.
Argument
Maybe one day we will find a power source strong enough.
My counter
You're misunderstanding the problem. The issues isn't we can't generate enough power, it more power needed is infinite. Infinite means take all the energy in the universe, and it's still not enough. It's not about finding a bigger battery.
Argument
Our science might be wrong
My counter
Well yes it could be. But there is more chance of you being wrong. Given the choice between backing 400 hundred years of solid science your a "maybe we're wrong" I think I'll firmly back the science. There is always the chance we could be right. Why believe so readily we could be wrong? Especially on science that has stood the test of time, and intellects far greater than ours.
Argument
Alien beings on another planet could have discovered a way?
My counter
The laws of the universe are pretty universal all over.

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13 Comments

02 Nov, '05 1:37 PM

1. QE

I once saw a student in a metaphysics lecture ask the lecturer ‘Ah, but what if we’re all just brains in vats and this reality is virtual?’ He told her that this reality being virtual didn’t make any difference to the material we were discussing, and that the concern of whether or not it was the case was one of epistemology, and didn’t fall within his syllabus.

Scientists will normally have a similar view. Could the rules change? It’s not likely, but I can’t prove they won’t. So what are we going to do if they do? Well I can’t prove they will, I would have no idea when it would be, and I don’t know what they would change to, so it would be a complete waste of effort to try and work it out. I’ll get on with my valuable work refining our existing model and working out useful things that work within it.

So you’re right, of course: it’s just like religion. You can’t disprove each other’s viewpoints, so neither of you is wrong, but that doesn’t make either of you right, and the whole argument is probably a complete waste of time. Sounds like you just couldn’t help but try though. I tend to be the same.

02 Nov, '05 4:22 PM

2. Destructor

Actually, reading ‘The Big Bang’, recently Adrian, I’m quite stunned by how many times science has gone through a paradigm shift, and how all the existing scientists grip, totally unreasonably, to their exisitng dogma, even when it defies reason to do so.

I generally agree that we should take existing, proven science as our theory for existence. But it’s still only a theory, waiting to be disproven. Without the sort of imaginative leaps your friend was willing to make, we’d never have come up with relativity, never known the Earth orbits the sun, never uncovered evolution, never discovered the big bang- all of which are enormous paradigm shifts which were very powerfully pushes back by the existing scientific establishment.

02 Nov, '05 4:35 PM

3. Adrian

Oh I entirely agree, science has gone through many paradigm shifts. But since the turn of the century these have less and less disproved previous science and more and more refined it. Our scientific rigour has improved vastly, and their is far less dubious science than their used to be. Many of these paradigm shifts have been in fact resulting from trying to prove something and finding out there is more to it in special circumstances.

Einstein didn’t sit their and say Newton is wrong. Einstein said “I can’t see how Newton can work in this circumstance, and then made the leap of logic to resolve the problem”. My friend is saying “But what if Newton was wrong”. Newton wasn’t wrong. Billiard balls will always follow his laws of motion.

I’m not saying science doesn’t change. It most certainly does, and constantly. But science also goes through many many critics (as you have just highlighted) and when it does stand up to the test of time and the critics, it normally does so because we have discovered a fundamental about the universe. Dismissing this against some future unknown is not giving the science it’s dues. Because there are fundamentals of the universe and we do know some of them.

Bring me a bit of science saying, “x is wrong, look at this” is one thing, and I’m happy to accept that. Saying “x might be wrong, one day” I am not.

03 Nov, '05 7:56 AM

4. Destructor

I agree. But we must be vigilant against scientific arrogance.

03 Nov, '05 9:53 AM

5. Adrian

Oh totally. But I do think the scientific community is where the worry should lie. As arrogant as older scientists may get, their is always new young buck, eager to break the mold and get his name known.

So science will always progress, not because there are these guys sitting around going “maybe one day” but because the laws of the universe are pretty much what they are no matter how much we want to prove otherwise (the earth being the centre of the universe for example). So the laws of the universe are sitting out there waiting for us to find them, and prove how they work. And this is what scientists do, have done and will always do.

It’s the religious nuts (and I think I could slide the “maybe one day” bunch in with them) who you have to worry about. Like those trying to teach quasi-creationism by glossing it up to be science.

03 Nov, '05 10:05 AM

6. Fer

It’s a commonly perpetuated fallacy that there are situations where “Newton is right” and others where relativity/quantum mechanics are needed to refine Newton.

It gives rise to a perception that there is some kind of sharp cut-off between Newtonian objects and non-Newtonian, which just isn’t the case.

It is not true to say that Newton’s laws apply to billiard balls - they don’t. However, on the scale of billiard balls, the difference between the predictions of Newtonian mechanics and those of either relativity or of quantum mechanics are so small as to be impossible to detect.

(Therefore an engineer would say that Newton is right in these circumstances but a mathematician wouldn’t - Adrian’s error is therefore understandable)

As the objects you are observing get smaller, the quantum effects get more pronounced until the differences are measurable between Newtonian and Quantum Mechanics, but this is not a sharp cut-off.

As objects get larger/heavier/faster then relativistic effects become more pronounced until the differences are measurable between Newtonian and relativistic mechanics, but again this is not a sharp cut-off.

One of the biggest problems being tackled today is the fact that QM and relativity are incompatible with one another (although both are “compatible” with Newton in that they don’t contradict Newton at the everyday scales of which Newton is a part). This doesn’t matter most of the time as objects are typically either too large for quantum mechanics to be important or too small for relativity to be important (or, in most cases for engineers, both [exceptions being electronics/communications where QM plays a part; I can’t think of any circumstances where an engineer has to allow for relativistic effects, other than in research into such effects]).

However there are certain circumstances where you have both relativistic and quantum effects within the same scales, and at this point things become very hard to predict with either theory as they contradict one another, and this is why theoretical physicists are looking for a unified theory which doesn’t have these contradictions.

Examples of these circumstances are: -in the early universe; -near black holes; or -in particle accelerators. (And these circumstances have a lot of parallels with one another which is why particle accelerators are key to research into the early universe).

03 Nov, '05 10:28 AM

7. Adrian

Fer, very well written explanation. What you’re talking about is the Correspondence principle

In physics, the correspondence principle is a principle, first invoked by Niels Bohr in 1923, which states that the behavior of quantum mechanical systems reduce to classical physics in the limit of large quantum numbers.

You’re right there is no cut point. And it is important to understand that their is not “two physics”. However it is effective (for both scientists and engineers) to use the descriptions of physics that applies to the realm that are working in (i.e. large gravity, billiard balls, atomic, planks length).

It’s a bit like the way the rules of a rectangle apply to a square, but not the other way round.

Interesting quote from Einstein on this

Every theory is killed sooner or later… But if the theory has good in it, that good is embodied and continued in the next theory. — Albert Einstein
03 Nov, '05 10:30 AM

8. Fer

As to Dan’s point, there are paradigm shifts, but if science is beind done properly these only happen when the existing theory has been shown BY EXPERIMENT to be inaccurate.

This can arise in one of two ways:

  1. An experiment shows that the existing theory isn’t right, and all other explanations (experimental error etc) have been ruled out. At this point theoreticians come up with a new theory which explains the apparently anomalous result.
  2. A theoretician comes up with a new theory from pure thinking.

The first is far more common.

In either case, the next step is to find a situation in which the existing theory gives different predictions from the new one. In situation 1 this has already been found but to be rigorous one should find a different situation as the test.

Then you devise an experiment which gives rise to that situation, and see from the result of that experiment which theory gave the right prediction.

Ideally you repeat this with other situations to give more weight to the eventually adopted theory.

If the new theory does not give any different predictions than the old one then it is not really a new theory but a reformulation of the existing one. In practice, then, neither theory is “better” but usually scientists will plump for the one which is easier for them to use (possibly with the use of Occam’s Razor). For example there are a number of interpretations of Quantum mechanics and the collapse of the wavefunction [many worlds, probabilistic interpretations etc] which give the same results and are all equally valid.

However, and this is the key point, while the existing theory continues to hold for all the tests we are able to throw at it, there is no scientific basis to question its validity. Just saying it might be wrong is not a valid argument (from a scientific perspective). “Imaginative leaps” may be a good intellectual exercise but they are not science until they have been tested by experiment.

It is human nature to cling on to existing beliefs, and that is why there is often resistance to a new theory. However this is why we have a scientific method.

We will (probably) always continue to find new areas of science to explore and theories will always be overturned. But if we’re still around a billion years from now then whatever strange and wonderful scientific theories we have, I can guarantee without any doubt that they will include (for example) the fact that the gravitational attraction between 2 bodies is G x m1 x m2 / r2. We KNOW this is true. But that shouldn’t stop us continuing to test it.

03 Nov, '05 10:39 AM

9. Adrian

Just to add to that, existing theories also can be queried where they break down mathematically and give nonsensical answers under certain circumstances, even if we don’t have the technology to prove this experimentally (yet). String theory is a good example of this.

Also given a choice between two theories, Scientists also often plump for the theory which is most elegant. Normally this turns out to be right.

04 Nov, '05 10:20 AM

10. nat

so what do you say if I say that somewhere in the universe/galaxy/whatever there is another planet with ‘people’ on it.

04 Nov, '05 10:22 AM

11. Adrian

I’d say “That’s what I’m planning on writing on mondays blog post”

07 Nov, '05 12:48 PM

12. marl

Its called the ‘reductio ad absurdum’ - ie. reducing every argument to the absurd, so that you can never win the argument.

So say for example, i say that medical insurance is too expensive. You counter with it can never be too expensive if you die. The end of the argument….

07 Nov, '05 1:37 PM

13. QE

Reductio ad absurdum (or proof by contradiction) is logical proof of a claim A by adding not A to the axioms of your system and deducing that the system is no longer valid, and hence that not A cannot be true.

While what Marl says is true as a transliteration, the use of the phrase is misleading. The Wikipedia article for reductio ad absurdum explains quite nicely its likeness to logical fallacies such as those appealed to in the above example.

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